Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
Y4 740 · MEX → LAS
departs 11:30 AM CST · arrives 2:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.