YV 4012 · IAD → LGA

took off 2:13 PM ET · expected to land 2:55 PM ET (scheduled 12:35 PM ET → 1:51 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
87%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 3.1 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.32 in

LGA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4012 · IAD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?