YV 4032 · IAD → LGA

took off 9:02 AM ET · landed 9:50 AM ET (scheduled 8:16 AM ET → 9:33 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip3.05 in

LGA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.91 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 4032 · IAD → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?