Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6273 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Today

YV 6273 · SBN → IAD

departs 10:06 AM ET · arrives 11:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 10am departures from SBN are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.82 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6273 · SBN → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?