YX 3471 · YHZ → EWR

departs 2:49 PM ADT · arrives 4:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
19%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YHZ

Weather at each end

YHZ (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip1.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3471 · YHZ → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?