Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 3471 · YHZ → EWR
departs 2:51 PM ADT · arrives 4:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 73%
Mon 10/12 27%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 30%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave YHZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
YHZ (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip 0.02 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.