YX 4442 · CLE → DCA

took off 8:08 AM ET · landed 9:11 AM ET (scheduled 7:49 AM ET → 9:27 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at CLE that day

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.29 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.97 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4442 · CLE → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?