YX 4461 · DCA → EYW

took off 12:26 PM ET · landed 2:59 PM ET (scheduled 10:13 AM ET → 1:49 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EYW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ EYW is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling360 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.85 in

EYW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4461 · DCA → EYW

Odds over time

How late did it get to EYW?