YX 4505 · DCA → BOS

took off 10:00 AM ET · expected to land 11:01 AM ET (scheduled 9:45 AM ET → 11:27 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BOS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.20 in

BOS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4505 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?