Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Yesterday
YX 4537 · YHZ → DCA
departs 3:43 PM ADT · arrives 5:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/11
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave YHZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YHZ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 360 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.85 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.