YX 4566 · DCA → HSV

took off 10:17 AM ET · landed 10:57 AM CT (scheduled 9:07 AM ET → 10:22 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HSV?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HSV that day

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.96 in

HSV (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4566 · DCA → HSV

Odds over time

How late did it get to HSV?