YX 4566 · HSV → DCA

departs 10:55 AM CT · arrives 2:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HSV that day

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

HSV (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.18 in

DCA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4566 · HSV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?