YX 4615 · CMH → ORD

took off 5:31 AM ET · landed 5:30 AM CT (scheduled 5:21 AM ET → 5:53 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CMH that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from CMH are usually not late

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.15 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4615 · CMH → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?