YX 4623 · LGA → YYZ

took off 10:47 AM ET · landed 11:48 AM EDT (scheduled 10:21 AM ET → 12:05 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YYZ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.85 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4623 · LGA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late did it get to YYZ?