Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4623
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
YX 4623 · LGA → YYZ
departs 10:25 AM ET · arrives 12:10 PM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/12 25%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from LGA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.