Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4658 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 3:39 PM ET (1 H 20 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Sunday, October 11 Today

YX 4658 · DCA → CLE

departs 2:08 PM ET · arrives 3:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CLE that day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.46 in

CLE (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4658 · DCA → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?