Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4753
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
YX 4753 · DCA → HXD
departs 8:42 AM ET · arrives 10:46 PM CST
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at HXD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HXD?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HXD
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
HXD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.71 in
HXD (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.