Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4753
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Yesterday
YX 4753 · HXD → DCA
departs 11:03 PM CST · arrives 12:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave HXD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HXD
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HXD (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.71 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.