YX 5871 · SBN → DCA

departs 10:04 AM ET · arrives 12:07 PM ET

Your aircraft is N240JQ (E75S), coming in as YX 5864 from DTW: landed 8:59 AM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from SBN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBN

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5871 · SBN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?