Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Today

9E 5164 · MSP → FAR

departs 9:02 AM CT · arrives 10:17 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAR?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at FAR that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ FAR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5164 · MSP → FAR

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAR?