9E 5329 · LGA → ORF

took off 1:31 PM ET · landed 2:20 PM ET (scheduled 12:11 PM ET → 1:31 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at ORF that day

↓ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

ORF (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5329 · LGA → ORF

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORF?