Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5329 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

9E 5329 · LGA → ORF

departs 12:07 PM ET · arrives 1:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5329 · LGA → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?