AA 1164 · DCA → BOS

took off 8:53 AM ET · landed 9:54 AM ET (scheduled 8:01 AM ET → 9:38 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BOS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.38 in

BOS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1164 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late did it get to BOS?