AA 1407 · LAX → PHL

departs 10:40 AM PT · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at LAX that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.22 in

PHL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1407 · LAX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?