Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 1407 · LAX → PHL

departs 10:30 AM PT · arrives 6:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1407 · LAX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?