AA 1491 · MIA → HOG

took off 1:51 PM ET · landed 2:56 PM CDT (scheduled 12:26 PM ET → 2:08 PM CDT)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at HOG more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HOG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into HOG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1491 · MIA → HOG

Odds over time

How late did it get to HOG?