AA 2083 · DCA → RDU

took off 9:54 PM ET · expected to land 10:39 PM ET (scheduled 8:42 PM ET → 10:08 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

98% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

LIVE

On time or early
2%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
73%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.22 in

RDU (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2083 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?