AA 2169 · BOS → PHL

departs 9:37 PM ET · arrives 11:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2169 · BOS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?