AA 2378 · LGA → MIA

departs 11:06 AM ET · arrives 2:08 PM ET

Your aircraft is N181UW (A321).

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2378 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?