AA 2381 · PHL → LAS

took off 5:02 PM ET · expected to land 6:51 PM PT (scheduled 4:14 PM ET → 6:41 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
47%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

LAS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2381 · PHL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?