Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2381 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 2381 · PHL → LAS

departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 6:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2381 · PHL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?