Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2434 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 3:39 PM CT (16 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 12 Today

AA 2434 · DFW → LGA

departs 3:14 PM CT · arrives 7:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at LGA that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2434 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?