Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2434 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2434 · DFW → LGA

departs 3:23 PM CT · arrives 8:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2434 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?