AA 2450 · VRA → MIA

departs 10:33 AM CDT · arrives 11:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 10am departures from VRA are usually not late

Weather at each end

VRA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2450 · VRA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?