Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2587 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Today

AA 2587 · PVD → DCA

departs 6:37 AM ET · arrives 8:19 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from PVD are usually not late

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.23 in

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2587 · PVD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?