AA 2680 · ORD → DCA

departs 3:01 PM CT · arrives 6:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2680 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?