tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2820 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

AA 2820 · PHX → MSP

departs 7:01 PM MT · arrives 12:08 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 166h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Monday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
30% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to MSP?

  1. On time or early
    70%
  2. 15–30 min late
    5%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    14%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    7%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.