AA 2967 · DCA → LGA

took off 5:45 PM ET · expected to land 6:26 PM ET (scheduled 5:11 PM ET → 6:26 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

LGA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2967 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?