AA 3228 · SJU → MIA

departs 4:39 PM AT · arrives 7:38 PM ET

Your aircraft is N988NN (B738), coming in as AA 457 from MIA: landed 4:35 PM AT.

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from SJU are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3228 · SJU → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?