Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3231 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

AA 3231 · PHX → DCA

departs 1:21 PM MT · arrives 8:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±3 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3231 · PHX → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?