AA 3263 · PHL → MSP

departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 8:28 PM CT

Your aircraft is N9021H (A319), coming in as AA 2049 from TPA: landed 5:06 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

MSP (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,733 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3263 · PHL → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?