Schedule: FAA flight plans.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 487
SCHEDULED
Monday, October 12 Today
AA 487 · MIA → BNA
departs 2:22 PM ET · arrives 3:41 PM CT
Your aircraft is N738US (A319), coming in as AA 1652 from MCO: in the air, landing about 1:50 PM ET, 25 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 37%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sat 10/17 33%
Sun 10/18 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
79%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 39 min after the scheduled departure, about 23 min late from the gate after a typical 16-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 39%.
+13 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 39 min after the scheduled departure, about 23 min late from the gate after a typical 16-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 40%.
+9 pts
79%
Yes 79%
No 21%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
2pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.