Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 626 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Today

AA 626 · CLT → CVG

departs 12:48 AM ET · arrives 2:06 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.06 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 626 · CLT → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?