Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 814 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Today

AA 814 · DEN → PHL

departs 2:52 PM MT · arrives 8:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 814 · DEN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?