AA 814 · DEN → PHL

departs 2:44 PM MT · arrives 8:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 814 · DEN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?