Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AEROMÉXICO · FLIGHT AM 420 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

AM 420 · MEX → MIA

departs 12:00 PM CST · arrives 5:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MEX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 420 · MEX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?