AS 309 · LAX → SFO

departs 12:55 PM PT · arrives 2:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±5 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,214 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 309 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?