Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 309 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 309 · LAX → SFO

departs 12:55 PM PT · arrives 2:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 309 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?