AS 429 · SEA → ORD

took off 10:49 AM PT · expected to land 4:16 PM CT (scheduled 10:29 AM PT → 4:44 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 429 · SEA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?