Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 429 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AS 429 · SEA → ORD

departs 10:29 AM PT · arrives 4:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 429 · SEA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?